World War 3 is going great.

US intelligence assessments, reported by CBS News and CNN, revealed that despite eight weeks of Operation Epic Fury, Iran retained approximately 50% of its ballistic missile stockpile (over 1,000 medium-range missiles from a pre-war inventory of ~2,500), 60% of its IRGC naval forces, and two-thirds of its air force. Thousands of one-way attack drones remained stockpiled. Iran's dispersal strategies and hardened underground facilities preserved much of the arsenal. The assessments contradicted Defense Secretary Hegseth's public claims that the operation had "eliminated Tehran's ability to project power." The cost of not eliminating that ability: 13 American service members dead and 400 wounded.

Among the war's expanding list of collateral damage: the world's largest condom manufacturer, Malaysia's Karex, warned of 20-30% price increases because the Strait of Hormuz closure cut off key ingredients — naphtha for packaging, silicon oil, ammonia, and latex (up 30%), with nitrile prices doubling. Karex produces 5 billion condoms annually. Separately, Lufthansa announced it would cancel 20,000 short-haul European flights through October to conserve jet fuel, which hit a record $1,840 per metric ton — more than double pre-war prices. The International Energy Agency estimated Europe had about six weeks of jet fuel left. The war that was supposed to be "nearly done" three weeks ago was now determining whether Germans could fly to Mallorca and how much the world pays for safe sex.

Ahead of a second round of peace talks, Trump posted on Truth Social: "We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran." In the same breath, he added: "We may even get involved with helping them rebuild their nation." His reasoning for not wanting to bomb the infrastructure: "the last thing we want to do is start with power plants, which are among the most expensive thing, and bridges." So the argument against blowing up Iran's bridges is that they'd be expensive to rebuild — which he is also offering to do. Meanwhile, the administration was separately reported to be considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of a deal — the same type of arrangement Trump spent a decade calling "disastrous" and "catastrophic" when Obama did it. The Daily Beast headline: "Trump Planning Jaw-Dropping Payment to Country He Bombed."

On April 17, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" as part of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal. Oil prices dropped 11%. More than a dozen commercial ships passed through. It lasted about a day. Trump thanked Iran for reopening the strait — then added that the US naval blockade would "remain in full force" until a deal was finalized. Iran's response was predictable: on April 18, it closed the strait again, citing the US refusal to lift its own blockade. Iranian gunboats then fired on two Indian-flagged tankers — including one that had received prior clearance to pass — forcing them to turn back. A container ship was hit by a rocket off the coast of Oman. To summarize the state of play: Iran opened the strait, the US refused to stop blockading it, so Iran closed it again and started shooting at ships. Both sides were now blockading the same waterway, for different reasons, while claiming the other side was the problem. The 20% of global seaborne oil that normally flows through here remained stuck.

Hours after peace talks collapsed, Trump announced on Truth Social that "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." He also ordered the Navy to "seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran" and to begin "destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits." To recap: the US went to war in part because Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Six weeks later, the strait is still closed — and now both sides are blockading it. Iran won't let ships through without permission and a $1-2 million toll. The US won't let ships through if they've paid the toll. The 800+ vessels trapped on either side now had two navies telling them they couldn't move.

The two-week ceasefire, scheduled to last until April 22, appeared to be functioning primarily as a reloading break. Hours after the Islamabad talks collapsed, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered the military to "heightened readiness," implementing structured war-preparation protocols from previous Iranian operations. The Israeli Air Force began rehearsing "opening scenarios" and finalizing updated strike packages. Military Intelligence accelerated its target bank expansion — missiles, launchers, infrastructure. A senior Israeli security official told the press: "The ceasefire agreement is extremely fragile. We are more pessimistic than optimistic. We are preparing to resume fighting." Netanyahu added: "There is still enriched material in Iran. It will either leave by agreement or by other means." Trump, not to be outdone, said US ships were being loaded with advanced weapons and "if we don't have a deal, we will be using them." The ceasefire that nobody believed in was now a ceasefire nobody was even pretending to believe in.

The first face-to-face talks between the US and Iran since 1979 lasted 21 hours before VP Vance walked out, declaring the US had made its "final and best offer." Sources close to the Iranian delegation said the US was "looking for an excuse to leave." Iran's four "non-negotiable conditions" — full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, complete war reparations, unfreezing of assets, and a region-wide ceasefire including Lebanon — remained unmet. Meanwhile, Trump was busy opening a new front: after US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship air defense systems to Iran, Trump warned "If China does that, China will have big problems, OK?" and threatened 50% tariffs on any country supplying Iran with weapons. China — which had helped broker the ceasefire — denied the allegations. The war that was supposed to be "nearly done" ten days ago now risked pulling in the world's second-largest economy.

While Vice President Vance was sitting across from Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the US Navy sent two destroyers — the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy — through the Strait of Hormuz unannounced to begin mine-clearing operations. The transit was not coordinated with Iran. Iran's IRGC issued what it called a "last warning," stating: "Any attempt by military vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will be dealt with severely." Iran also denied the ships had passed at all. The crossing came on the same day that 14 hours of face-to-face talks concluded without a deal, with Iran listing four "non-negotiable conditions" including full sovereignty over the Strait. The US was simultaneously asking Iran to reopen the waterway at the negotiating table and forcing it open with warships.

Two days into a fragile ceasefire and with peace talks being arranged, Trump posted on Truth Social that US forces would remain deployed in and around Iran until a "REAL AGREEMENT" is fully honored — and then added: "In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest." He also warned that if the agreement falls apart, "the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before." The statement went out while Pakistani diplomats were finalizing arrangements for face-to-face talks between Vance and Iranian officials. Nothing helps a fragile peace process like the other side's president publicly musing about which country he'd like to invade next.

Soldiers who survived the March 1 Iranian drone attack on Port Shuaiba — which killed six Americans — went public to contradict Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's account of the strike. Hegseth had called the fatal drone a "squirter" that slipped through robust base defenses. The soldiers had a different word for their drone defenses: "none." One survivor told CBS News the unit "was unprepared to provide any defense for itself," with fortifications "about as weak as one gets" — tin buildings behind a thin layer of blast barricades. They'd requested drone-defeat capabilities. The capabilities never came. The drones did. The Pentagon also quietly revised its casualty count: initially five seriously wounded, actually over 30, including burns, shrapnel wounds, and traumatic brain injuries. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell maintained that "every possible measure has been taken to safeguard our troops — at every level." The troops who were there would like a word.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's two largest Baltic oil terminals — Primorsk and Ust-Luga — became so intense that residents of St. Petersburg, 150 km away, could literally smell burning crude drifting into their apartments. A 53-year-old asthmatic named Konstantin told Al Jazeera: "I never thought it would come to this, that the war would be in the air around me." Ukrainian drones, some traveling over 1,500 km, hit 13 sites and seriously damaged at least eight refineries from the Baltic to the Volga. The strikes cost Moscow an estimated $1 billion and triggered the sharpest decline in Russia's Baltic oil exports since the full-scale invasion began. Russia started this war expecting to take Kyiv in three days. Four years later, its cultural capital smells like a refinery fire.

At a White House press conference on Day 38 of the war, a reporter asked Trump whether he was winding down or escalating the conflict with Iran. His answer: "I don't know. I can't tell. It depends what they do." This was the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military on Earth, 38 days into a war he started, publicly admitting he had no idea where it was going. At the same press conference, he outlined a "4-hour attack plan" to obliterate Iran's power grid and bridges if no deal was reached by 8 PM the following day, vowed Iran could be "taken out in one night," and extended his deadline for the third time.

Trump had publicly declared: "They are begging to make a deal, not me. They're begging to work out a deal." According to Financial Times reporting, the opposite was true. The Trump administration had been privately pushing for a ceasefire since at least March 21 — the same day Trump first threatened to bomb Iran's power plants. Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir served as the back channel, shuttling between Iranian officials, envoy Steve Witkoff, VP Vance, and Trump himself. The administration needed the ceasefire to stop the economic bleeding from the Hormuz closure, which was cratering Trump's approval numbers. The revelation that Trump was the one requesting the ceasefire — while publicly claiming Iran was "begging" — contradicted, as the New Republic put it, "virtually everything the Trump administration has claimed about Iran."

Despite the ceasefire's requirement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran informed mediators it would limit crossings to roughly a dozen ships per day — down from the hundreds that normally transit daily — and charge tolls of $1-2 million per vessel, payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan. On April 8, only four ships were allowed through — the fewest since the war began. Meanwhile, 800+ vessels remained trapped on either side. The White House insisted the ceasefire required passage "without limitation, including tolls." Iran disagreed. US intelligence assessed that Iran was "unlikely to relinquish control" of the strait, with one official noting: "Iran has tasted its power and leverage... it won't soon give it up." The world's most important shipping lane was now, effectively, an Iranian tollbooth.

Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel declared it did not extend to Lebanon and launched what it called its "largest coordinated strike" of the war — hitting 100+ Hezbollah targets within 10 minutes across Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley. At least 254 people were killed and 1,165 wounded in a single day. VP Vance called the disagreement over whether Lebanon was covered "a legitimate misunderstanding." Pakistan, which had mediated the ceasefire, publicly called out the violation. Iran's response was swift: it halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz again — hours after allowing the first two ships to pass — and threatened to pull out of the Islamabad peace talks entirely. The White House insisted the strait was open, calling Iranian reports "false." Iranian state media showed otherwise. The ceasefire was less than 24 hours old.

Multiple Gulf states reported attacks despite the ceasefire. Iran accused the US and Israel of violations. The US accused Iran of the same. Both were probably right.

A 4,500-word New York Times investigation by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman reconstructed the Situation Room deliberations that led to the Iran war. The picture it painted was not reassuring. On February 11, Netanyahu arrived at the White House with a Mossad-produced presentation pitching a four-part plan: kill the Ayatollah, destroy Iran's military capacity, foment a popular uprising, and install a secular leader — complete with a video montage of potential replacement rulers. Trump's initial reaction: "Sounds good to me." The next day, US intelligence officials assessed parts 3 and 4 as "detached from reality." CIA Director Ratcliffe used one word to describe the regime-change scenarios: "farcical." Secretary of State Rubio translated: "In other words, it's bullshit." Joint Chiefs Chairman General Caine added: "This is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed." Trump dismissed the concerns — regime change would be "their problem." VP Vance was the lone forceful opponent, warning the war would cause "regional chaos and untold casualties," fracture Trump's coalition, and be "seen as a betrayal" by voters. He also flagged that a war would deplete US munitions stockpiles for years. Tucker Carlson visited the Oval Office multiple times warning the war would "destroy his presidency." Trump reassured him by phone: "I know you're worried about it, but it's going to be OK." Carlson asked how he knew. "Because it always is," Trump replied. Defense Secretary Hegseth was the biggest war proponent: they'd have to deal with Iran "eventually, so they might as well do it now." Meanwhile, the two officials who would need to manage what the Times called "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" — Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright — were excluded from the planning entirely. Even communications director Steven Cheung pointed out the problem: how would they explain away eight months of insisting Operation Midnight Hammer had "totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear program? In the final meeting on February 26, Kushner and Witkoff called from Geneva to report they could "probably negotiate something" with Iran but it would take months. The next afternoon, aboard Air Force One, 22 minutes before General Caine's deadline, Trump sent his order: "Operation Epic Fury is approved. No aborts. Good luck." The Times concluded: "Everyone deferred to the president's instincts."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters the US had achieved "complete control of Iranian skies" and "uncontested airspace" over Iran. This was two days after an F-15E was shot down by a shoulder-fired missile and its crew needed 155 aircraft and two days to rescue. Hegseth also claimed Iranian missile and drone launches had hit their lowest 24-hour period since the war began. Administration officials told the Washington Post that claim was incorrect — lower periods had occurred on March 14, 15, and 22. Senator Chris Van Hollen accused Hegseth of "blowing smoke." Arizona Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari introduced articles of impeachment against him, calling him the "chief enabler of this illegal war."

On Day 39 of the conflict, a 2-week ceasefire was announced, mediated by Pakistan. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Talks were set for April 10 in Islamabad. VP Vance called it a "fragile truce." Within hours, both sides reported violations: the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. Iran said its Lavan oil refinery was attacked. Israel said it would not stop operations in Lebanon. The ceasefire was, in the gentlest possible terms, aspirational.

At 6:30 PM ET, with his self-imposed 8:00 PM deadline approaching, Trump posted: "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again" if Iran didn't agree to a deal. Legal scholars noted the threat constituted an explicit promise of genocide under international law. Then, at 6:30 PM — 90 minutes before his own deadline — Trump announced he would grant a two-week extension instead, after Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif "requested that he hold off." This was the third time Trump had set a hard deadline for Iran and then backed down. He had previously set deadlines for March 23 (extended), April 6 (extended), and now April 7 (extended again). PBS headline: "3 Times Trump Has Given Iran Deadlines and Then Delayed Them."